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There are 2 minutes left. How the doomsday clock works

Carolyn Kaster/Associated Press

The second time, the clock used as a measure of how close we are to self-destruct has moved 30 seconds.

The Council of Scientists has moved the Doomsday Clock forward 30 seconds to 11:58 pm.

“We are concerned that the time on the Doomsday Clock has changed,” Rachel Bronson, the organization's president and CEO, said during a news conference in Washington, DC. "Two minutes to midnight."

The clock, first launched in 1947, is designed to measure how close we are to destroying the world. This is the second time the clock approaches midnight. This first happened in 1953, after the US and Soviet Union tested their first thermonuclear bombs.

Lawrence Krauss, chairman of the board, said: “The danger of a nuclear holocaust is greater now than during the Cold War.

In 2017, the clock hands were set two and a half minutes before midnight. At the time, the report said: "The likelihood of a global catastrophe is very high, and the actions necessary to reduce the risks of catastrophe must be taken immediately."

Tensions between the U.S. and North Korea have escalated over the past few months, which Bronson said has affected the change in time.

“To call a nuclear state scary is to downplay the danger and its immediacy,” Bronson said.

On January 3, US President Donald Trump responded to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's remark that he had a nuclear button on his desk: "North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that the Nuclear Button will always be on his desk. Someone from his emaciated and hungry country tell him that I also have a nuclear button, but it is much larger and more powerful than his, and my button works!

Despite some easing of tensions between North and South Korea after they agreed to participate in the Winter Olympics, there are concerns about North Korea's nuclear missiles. The country has reportedly conducted several tests of its missiles, the latest being capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to North America.

The group of scientists also pointed to the challenges of climate change and technological innovation, including artificial intelligence and cyber threats, which have affected the change in time.

Not only nuclear threats.

Sivan Karta, a senior fellow at the Stockholm Environmental Institute, highlighted concerns about climate change, noting that in 1953, the only time the clock was so close to midnight was not even raised.

“Since then, the amount of gases we emit into the atmosphere has increased sixfold. And, as a result, the Earth warmed up by one degree,” said Karta.

He noted the reduction of ice cover in the Arctic, as well as catastrophic events such as fires in the US and Canada.

“The nuclear situation this year is a major concern,” Krauss said. "We feel that the world is becoming more and more dangerous."

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Once again, our world has come close to its fatal end, according to analysts studying the possibility of an apocalypse. The Doomsday Clock has been moved to 23-58. There are 2 minutes left and the apocalypse will come - humanity will end its existence. What led to such a gloomy forecast of scientists?

doomsday clock

The metaphorical clock that measures the cycle of life of today's humanity has been called the Doomsday clock. Conventionally, the entire period of our stay on Earth was divided into hours and minutes, as in ordinary hours - 24 hours. 00-00 mark - beyond which there will no longer be human life. Scientists have come up with such a clear way to calculate the potential for death of a person.

This project was started in 1947 by the American creators of the atomic bomb. They periodically publish an image of the Doomsday Clock in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The arrows there symbolically indicate the level of development of the nuclear potential in the world and the tension of the world situation. The analysis is carried out by a special team of experts, including 18 Nobel laureates.

In 1947, 7 minutes remained until X hour. In 1963, when the USSR and the USA signed an agreement banning nuclear testing, the arrows were moved to 23-48. The apocalypse is 12 minutes away. The safest situation was in 1991, when the cold war. Then the doomsday clock showed 23-43.

Later, they began to take into account a wider range of factors leading humanity to death. Local wars, terrorism, climate impact, .

Getting closer to the end

In the past few years, the pace of moving clock hands has accelerated significantly. The United States and Russia are beginning to compete in nuclear power, unleashing a new arms race. North Korea is actively conducting nuclear tests, openly threatening its political opponents.

Of the recent disturbing trends, scientists single out mass robotization and the introduction of artificial intelligence.


The movement of the hands towards the hour X was also affected by the discrediting of trust in the media on a global scale. And here is the result of 2018 - 2 minutes left before the apocalypse. A serious reason to think for all living on Earth.

Is there any hope?

Naturally, the doomsday clock is just a conditional indicator. The transfer of the arrows to the 00-00 position will not cause the start of a nuclear war or a global catastrophe on the planet. But the clock serves as a warning to all living on Earth.

All wealth and all power will not be needed if humanity destroys itself by its deeds, far from the good nature of man. And as we all see modern man succeeded in destroying the world around him and himself. But hope always remains, even if only 2 minutes remain ...

For more than 70 years, the project has been "predicting" how soon a nuclear catastrophe will occur. But how exactly does this happen?

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Stand with the Doomsday Clock - there are two conditional minutes left before midnight. Getty Photos

On January 25, the hands of the Doomsday Clock by 30 seconds - this means that there are two conditional minutes left before the onset of a nuclear cataclysm. At least, this is what the authors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists project at the University of Chicago think. Since 1947, this watch has been predicting how close humanity is to the brink of extinction due to a hypothetical nuclear war. During this time, the clock hands were translated 24 times, and by January 2018 they show a record dangerous time.

Who Invented the Clock

The Doomsday Clock was the answer of the American magazine Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by US forces at the end of World War II. The founder of the publication was Evgeny Rabinovich, a native of St. Petersburg, who moved from Russia in 1920. In 1945, he signed an appeal to the US authorities asking them not to drop nuclear bombs on Japan.

Two years later, when the requests became meaningless, and the Cold War began between the USSR and Western countries, the Bulletin leadership created the Doomsday Clock. Among the creators of the Watch were those who were in charge of the Manhattan Project (US program to develop nuclear weapons). The bottom line is simple - the closer the minute hand of the clock is to midnight, the more the authors of the project are confident in the coming global catastrophe.

Who sets the clock

Throughout its work, the Doomsday Clock has been regularly criticized for being chaotic and inconsistent. However, the authors never positioned the project as an ideal catastrophe predictor. It is rather a symbol of global threats and a way to inform the world community about the danger.

To determine the time on the Clock, the authors take into account the following factors: nuclear threat, climate change, human biological security, bioterrorism and other dangers, such as cyber wars or artificial intelligence. Each announcement of the time change on the Clock is accompanied by a large report by experts on the state of affairs in the world.

The decision to switch arrows is made by the Board of Directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and invited experts. They meet annually in a private meeting in November and discuss world changes. There is no specific formula by which time is measured. Each time, experts (mostly men, notes The Verge) approach the issue based on their knowledge.

How time has changed on the clock

Over the past 10 years, the time on the Clock has been gradually approaching midnight. This was partly due to the deterioration of relations between the United States and Russia in the early 2000s. In total, the authors translated the hands on the Clock 24 times. Here are the most significant change dates:

  • 1947 - installation of the Clock, the beginning of the Cold War. There are 7 minutes left before the global catastrophe;
  • 1949 - The USSR tested its first nuclear bomb. There are 3 minutes left before the global catastrophe;
  • 1953 - The USSR and the USA tested thermonuclear bombs with a difference of nine months. There are 2 minutes left before the global catastrophe;
  • 1963 - The US and the USSR signed a nuclear test ban treaty (this happened after the Caribbean crisis, which is considered the most dangerous moment in the history of mankind). There are 12 minutes left before the global catastrophe;
  • 1974 - India tested its first nuclear bomb ("Smiling Buddha"), relations between the superpowers deteriorated. There are 9 minutes left before the global catastrophe;
  • 1984 - the war in Afghanistan with the participation of the USSR and the USA (they help different sides) continues, Ronald Reagan intensifies the aggressive rhetoric against the Soviet Union. There are 3 minutes left before the global catastrophe;
  • 1991 - The Cold War ends due to the collapse of the USSR, the United States signs an arms reduction treaty. There are 17 minutes left before the global catastrophe (the position of the Clock farthest from midnight in history);
  • 2015 - countries with nuclear weapons ignore agreements and do not reduce stocks, a new arms race has begun between the United States and Russia, the crisis between Russia and Ukraine leads to a confrontation between East and West. There are 3 minutes left before the global catastrophe;
  • 2018 - North Korea continues to conduct nuclear tests, the threat of climate change is growing, the confrontation between the United States and Russia is heating up against the backdrop of a possible cyber war. There are 2 minutes left before the global catastrophe.

What is the purpose of the clock

In a report released in January 2018, the Bulletin experts explained what, in their opinion, needs to be changed to avoid a global catastrophe. Key points from the document:

  • US President Donald Trump should stop open confrontation with his opponents in the White House and agree on cooperation with them;
  • The Chinese government should stop ignoring the DPRK's aggression and use its political influence in the region to resolve tensions;
  • The US should reduce its interest in the affairs of the Middle East, especially in Iran;
  • The US and Russia must stop the political confrontation and begin to reduce nuclear stocks;
  • World countries must reduce the amount of carbon dioxide emissions into the Earth's atmosphere to avoid a climate catastrophe;
  • The world should be wary of full-fledged artificial intelligence until its prospects and dangers are fully understood.

In a conversation with the New Republic, astrophysicist and Bulletin board member Lawrence Krauss acknowledged that the Clock is a symbol, not an accurate measure of the world's danger. According to him, in the future, the authors of the project can compress changes on the Clock from minutes to seconds so as not to distort perception. According to the author of several scientific books on cosmology, the changes in the Clock and the accompanying report should not point people to problems in the world, but show ways to solve these problems.

“At the sight of this Clock, people can get so scared and depressed that they won’t do anything. Or they can get angry and do something: vote in the elections for the first time, go to a demonstration or write petitions to the government,” says Krauss.

The scientist's arguments are almost the same as those of Rabinovich, who founded the Bulletin more than 70 years ago as a symbol of protest against nuclear weapons.

The Doomsday Clock is not a way to record the ups and downs in the international power struggle, it is meant to reflect the changes in the constant danger in which humanity lives in the nuclear age.

Evgeny Rabinovich

Founder of the American journal Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

The hands of the doomsday clock, counting the conventional time until the beginning of the end of the world, have moved another 30 seconds forward and now show 23:58, according to a press release on the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists website.

The world has become closer to the end of the world

Note that the hands of the doomsday clock move every year. The last time they moved by 30 seconds was in 2017 after US President Donald Trump announced the widespread use and proliferation of nuclear weapons. This time, the situation was aggravated by the actions of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who repeatedly tested nuclear weapons over the course of six months. During a press conference in Washington, experts said that "the situation on the planet is close to catastrophe" and "nuclear weapons tests pose a threat to all mankind."

“The probability of a global catastrophe is very high, so the measures necessary to reduce the risks must be taken in the near future. State leaders must act immediately to save humanity from falling into the abyss. If they do not, the citizens themselves must take action,” the message reads.

However, worries about Kim Jong-un's actions were not the only risk factor in 2017. In addition: differences between the US and Russia remain; military exercises continue along NATO borders; the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range Missiles is being undermined; the nuclear arsenals of both countries are being modernized; the parties refuse to negotiate on arms control.

“The major nuclear players are on the verge of starting a new arms race that will be very expensive and increase the risk of accidents and misunderstandings. Nuclear weapons across the planet will become more rather than less common as nations invest in their nuclear capabilities.

Scientists also identify climate risks. In particular, the unsustainable reduction of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere.

About the watch

The Doomsday Clock was created in 1947 by American scientists and journalists from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. Initially, the time remaining until midnight symbolized the tension in the international situation and progress in the development of nuclear weapons. Then other factors that threaten humanity - environmental and technological - began to be taken into account.

Note that the decision to move the arrows forward or backward is made by the Board of Directors of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, together with 18 invited Nobel Prize winners.

The last time the world was so close to the end of the world was in 1953, when the USSR and the USA tested their thermonuclear bombs 9 months apart. Then the clock was also 23:58. The earthlings were the furthest from nuclear midnight in 1991, when the Treaty on the Reduction of Strategic Offensive Arms was signed between the USSR and the USA. This year the clock showed only 23:43.

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